Research blog

Prediction Markets: A Price That Looks Like a Probability

A contract paying one dollar if something happens trades at the market's estimate of it happening. The gap between that and a forecast is where the money is.

When to Sell a Memecoin

Entries get all the attention and exits decide the result. Three rules written before the position opens, because none of them can be written during it.

How Much to Put Into a Memecoin

The distribution is not normal, so the usual sizing rules give the wrong answer. A method that survives a run of zeros without giving up the outliers.